It's fascinating to watch the different coverage and stats from different countries. There are so many ways to spin the numbers it's amazing. For example, if you under-test, your death rates look terrible. Test everyone you can, and your death rates look great. Comorbidities (did a patient die from corona, or because of heart disease?) and long hospitalization times (death from corona can take more than a month) are blurring the data.
I'm watching Italy as closely as I can. Modern nation, Western, well-rated healthcare system. Their fatality numbers are bad, and the anecdotal accounts we see on social media are piling up too high to dismiss.
Government's rational goal is to spread this out as long as possible, so that it's akin to just a very bad and very long flu. Corona is overwhelming healthcare systems, and hospitals are having to triage resources; specifically CPAPs, oxygen concentrators, ventilators, etc. That video we posted a while back, of China rapidly building additional hospitals, makes a lot of sense right now.
Individuals' rational goal is to protect themselves and their families, and that goal is conflicting with the government's messaging. For example, here is the NYC mayor claiming that an infected person can sneeze in your water glass, and you can drink it and not get infected. I'm not a virologist, but I know that when compared to larger and more established health authorities, this is a very unusual view. Note also how NY established a 1-mile "red zone" today, so the National Guard can "help" people. I'm happy about these efforts to control infection, but I know that it's an American way of attempting to present a quarantine in a culturally-palatable manner.
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Supply chain issues are starting to surface, and will likely worsen. We may see this impact our hobby.
Corona cases outside of China are increasing exponentially.
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