He was in a sweeping left turn. Also look at the steering wheel. Notice its position . . . he was turning slight left. Look at the arrow it shows curbing to the left. When the wheel toed out to the right it was pointing down the track. That steered the rear end to the right creating the over-steer to the left and into the wall. Replay the video at the slowest speed and you can clearly see the assembly toe out. The tire failed after that.
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