Covid-19 Reality Check

[Crusty]

You can play all sorts of games with statistics and language. For instance you can assert that CV19 has a 100% mortality rate because every person who contracts it will die (eventually) if you ignore cause and effect.

Gonna go find my candle lantern so I can go out tonight walking the roads searching for an honest person, a search which I understand has been going on for a while.

[Okapi]

Thanks Frank for your explanation.
Here in Switzerland there is a very simple manner used by medical authority to count how many people die because the Covid kill them, and they give a lot of information about that method, it makes in a short manner a list, if you are over weighted, you are in the 80% part of dead persons, and if you are more than 80 years old you are in the red part of the list, 96% of those persons have a preexistant disease.
Then, if you are young with a normal weight and no specific disease, you have more than 95% to be just sick but with nearly no risk to dead.
After that you can elaborate the theory you want, but if you are as me in the categories(not fat, just a problem with lung capacity) which have a lot more chances to dead, you stay at home!!! ;-)

[Toolmaker51]

COVID-19, insurance policies, politicians...; really any of the irritants hitting us daily. Outlook is everything; be informed AND remain skeptical.
And when all else fails

[jdurand]

In California, Contra Costa County the new guidelines are gatherings up to 12 are ok unless you are protesting, then 100 is ok. This is not a joke.

Joke part...maybe... Stores thinking of renaming as PROTEST Grill, PROTEST Grocery, ...

[Toolmaker51]

In California, Contra Costa County the new guidelines are gatherings up to 12 are ok unless you are protesting, then 100 is ok. This is not a joke.

Joke part...maybe... Stores thinking of renaming as PROTEST Grill, PROTEST Grocery, ...

I'M IN! I bet we can get more than 100, PROTEST New Normal, PROTEST One Global Entity, then we'll hang out and make stuff at PROTEST Tool & Die!

[IAMSatisfied]

[Okapi]

They were statistical experts who calculated the number of death in the US a month ago for the future month, and they were desperately wrong, it comes a lot worse…
https://www.letemps.ch/monde/un-mode...nis-va-doubler
Our latest forecasts project nearly 135,000 #COVID19 deaths in the United States. These projections reflect increased human mobility and the easing of social distancing measures in many US states. Read our press announcement: https://t.co/iiDBeLZffV pic.twitter.com/G2o0mSxQL0

[DIYSwede]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
128 783 as of yesterday, June 28...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

These guys (as per June 30th) estimate 175 168 deaths by Oct 1st...
(You can check your own country's/ state's forecast by scrolling in the top green line.)

But given that IHME's prediction above (of May 4th) for Aug 4th (3 months later),
for UK; France, Spain, Italy and Germany
was already exceeded in the last week of June (a mere 7 weeks),
I assume we're all in for a few more surprises...

Time will eventually tell if anybody's guess was even close.

Disclaimer: I am, given the last few months with this pandemic,
not leaning towards or relying on any particular forecasting agency.
I will not be held responsible, nor argument for or against any reactions from reading the above links.

As Niels Bohr said:
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

[DIYSwede]

A Quick Guide to Low-risk groups for Covid-19:
Young, wealthy, mentally and physically gifted and active, health-concerned with nutritious diet,
highly educated with low-stress lives and parents and grandparents who've reached high age with good health.
Having spacious living with outdoor activities in a well-off community at max 28 deg latitude.

Some links on/ for the rest of us:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...onditions.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabo...d_correlations
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-...et-linked.html

PS: If you've received a negative anti-body test - don't panic yet:

There's a new (as of yesterday, not yet peer-reviewed or published) paper labeled:
Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19,
stating:"SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were detectable in antibody-seronegative family members
and individuals with a history of asymptomatic or mild COVID-19."

Which in layman's terms means that:
People with mild or no symptoms and negative antibody tests,
still could have long-term immunity towards this particular SARS-CoV-2 strain.

"SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19"


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...06.29.174888v1

[Okapi]

Thanks for those information, each morning, thinking at our members especially in the US who are endangered or have friends or family endangered by the Covid, I'm very sad and worried about all those people I know in those countries, stay at home and stay protected if you have to go outside!!!
I offer this picture to all people and friends through the world.